Horror in the Hill Country

By Gloria Way

  This article is written with much sadness and heartbreak. As of this morning, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, 109 people have lost their lives, 25 people are still missing which includes 10 young campers and one counselor from Camp Mystic.

  Very few people have not been affected by this tragedy. We all know of someone who knew someone whose child, grandchild, niece, nephew, cousin, or friend lost their lives in the historic, destructive flooding. The loss alone of over two dozen young girl campers from the very popular Camp Mystic in Kerrville has traumatized the nation as desperate parents pray that their child may still be found alive. Prayers for comfort and peace for everyone who has lost a loved one.

  Here is what we know:  The timeline of National Weather Service Alerts –

July 2–3, 2025: Early Watches

• 5:47 p.m., July 2: Texas Division of Emergency Management activates state emergency resources for central and west Texas
• Morning, July 3: National Water Center issues a Flood Hazard Outlook highlighting flash-flood potential across Kerrville and surrounding areas
• 1:18 p.m., July 3: NWS Austin/San Antonio issues a Flood Watch for Kerr County — forecasted 1–3″ of rain (with some areas possibly seeing up to 5–7″)
• 6:22 p.m., July 3: National Water Center elevates risk to “considerable,” noting heavy rain and flash flooding threat
• ∼8:12 p.m., July 3: Flood Watch extended deeper into the evening ksat.com.

Overnight — July 3 into July 4

• 11:41 p.m., July 3: First Flash Flood Warning issued (Bandera County)
• 1:14 a.m., July 4: Flash Flood Warning with “considerable” tagging activated for Bandera & Kerr Counties, triggering Wireless Emergency Alerts and NOAA Weather Radio
• 1:26 a.m., July 4: WPC issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion warning of very heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential
• 2:14 a.m., July 4: Flash Flood Warning area expanded further .
• 3:06 a.m., July 4: NWS posts on X that a “very dangerous flash flooding event is ongoing” across south‑central Kerr County 3:28–3:32 a.m., July 4: River flood warnings issued for Guadalupe River at Hunt and downstream for Kerrville
• 3:56 a.m., July 4: Updated River Forecast Warning for Hunt
• 4:03 a.m., July 4: Flash Flood Emergency issued for south‑central Kerr County (Hunt), urging immediate action .
• 4:06 a.m., July 4: NWS Austin/San Antonio posts on X again: “A very dangerous flash flooding event is ongoing. Turn Around, Don’t Drown!”
• 4:23 a.m., July 4: NWS X message upgraded to “PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION” and Flash Flood Emergency
• 5:15 a.m., July 4: NWS San Angelo posts Flash Flood Emergency; Austin/San Antonio follows at 5:23 a.m..
• 5:34 a.m., July 4: Flash Flood Emergency issued downstream for Kerrville — “catastrophic” conditions

July 5, 2025

• Additional two Flash Flood Emergencies are issued for areas around Lake Travis and Central Comal County

Summary & Context

• The NWS began warnings over 12 hours before the river surge, starting with a Flood Watch at 1:18 p.m., July 3.
• A series of escalations occurred overnight — Flash Flood Warnings by 11:41 p.m., upgraded to “considerable” at 1:14 a.m.
• The most critical warnings, Flash Flood Emergencies, began around 4 a.m.–5:30 a.m. on July 4.
• Flooding peaked between 5 a.m. and 7 a.m., carrying extreme intensity.
• Despite alerts arriving within ~3+ hours lead time, the fast-moving flood overnight hindered effective public response.

Here’s what we know about how fast the floodwaters rose in Kerrville during the early morning hours of July 4, 2025:

• In the Hunt area (upstream of Kerrville), the Guadalupe River soared by 22 feet (≈ 6.7 m) in just 2 hours, before gauge equipment failed when it hit around 29 feet
• As that surge moved downstream toward Kerrville, the river still surged an additional 21 feet over a short period .
• According to Texas Public Radio, one stretch of the river “rose 26 feet within 45 minutes”
• NBC reported that near Hunt, the river jumped 22 feet in 3 hours overnight, and downstream in Comfort, it surged 22–26 feet in 45 minutes
• The Times (UK) noted “more than 10 m [~33 ft] per hour in some stretches,” with the waters reaching “almost 8 m [~26 ft] within 45 minutes” around Center Point, southeast of Kerrvilleco.uk.

  This made it one of the fastest-rising river events on record for the Guadalupe in Kerr County – a textbook example of catastrophic flash flooding

Key Takeaways:

• Local alert systems in Kerr County are not county-wide sirens or river-level alarms; local officials strongly emphasized they lacked a formal emergency notification system.
• The Kerr County Sheriff’s Office first reported flooding at low-water crossings around 4:35 am, about three hours after the initial flash flood warning.
• Kerr County Judge Ro Kelly stated that they “didn’t know this flood was coming” and confirmed the county “does not have a warning system in place for flooding”.