A historically chalky NCAA tournament will get the heavyweight finale it deserves.
All four No. 1 seeds have advanced to the men’s Final Four for the first time since 2008 and only the second time in history.
Saturday’s first national semifinal will pit the two juggernauts left standing from this season’s most dominant conference. SEC regular-season champ Auburn (32-5) will face off against SEC tournament champion Florida (34-4) with a spot in the national title game at stake.
The nightcap of the Final Four doubleheader could offer Duke (35-3) its toughest challenge of the postseason. The Blue Devils draw a Houston team that has lost just once since Thanksgiving weekend thanks to its holy trinity of defense, rebounding and protecting the ball.
Oddly enough, the Alamodome was also the venue the only other time all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four. In 2008, Kansas toppled Memphis in overtime to win Bill Self’s first national title, tying the game in the final seconds of regulation with a Mario Chalmers 3-pointer after Derrick Rose missed a potential clinching free throw.
Between 2008 and 2025, there weren’t many other years when the four No. 1 seeds came close to advancing en masse to the Final Four. Only in 2015 did three teams from the top seed line make the Final Four. Not since 2016 have all four No. 1 seeds even made the Elite Eight.
“The four teams that are advancing, I think they’re the best four teams in the country,” Auburn coach Bruce Pearl said after his team’s win Sunday. “That doesn’t obviously always happen.”
In hindsight, there were signs before the NCAA tournament tipped off that this could be the year that bucked that trend. By the numbers, the 2025 NCAA tournament had maybe the strongest quartet of No. 1 seeds in recent history.
Duke, Florida, Auburn and Houston each entered the NCAA tournament with adjusted efficiency margins of 35 or more, according to college basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy. That’s the number of points they would be expected to outscore the average Division I opponent by over 100 possessions.
The gap between the four No. 1 seeds and even this year’s No. 2s and 3s was unusually large. So was the gap between this year’s four No. 1 seeds and previous national champions. Only two of the past 22 national champions have finished the NCAA tournament with an adjusted efficiency margin above 35.
Anecdotal evidence corroborates what the numbers are suggesting. Auburn and Florida are the two strongest teams from a dominant conference. Houston won the Big 12 by four games and backed that up with a conference tournament crown. Duke produced a historic season in a down ACC, piling up a plus-434 scoring margin in 20 league games. It was mid-January the last time any of them were ranked lower than sixth in the AP poll.
Who’s the favorite among the No. 1 seeds? Oddsmakers say it’s Duke — and with good reason.
Jon Scheyer’s first Final Four team is the best Duke team in a decade, better than the 32-win Zion Williamson-R.J. Barrett juggernaut, better than the Paolo Banchero-led group that took Mike Krzyzewski to one last Final Four. With Cooper Flagg and fellow projected lottery picks Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach, the Blue Devils are challenging the narrative that a freshman-driven team cannot win a national title in the era of COVID seniors and grad transfers.
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If this Final Four ends up a Duke coronation, the Blue Devils will have earned their crown.
Houston will test Duke’s top-ranked offense on Saturday with its top-rated defense. The Cougars will be eager to avenge last year’s Sweet 16 loss, a game that they were leading until losing star guard Jamal Shead to an injury midway through the first half.
Looming on the other side of the bracket is an Auburn team that looks to have rediscovered its peak form and a Florida team with the most ice-cold clutch shooter in this NCAA tournament. No one wants any part of Walter Clayton Jr. in a close game down the stretch. Ask UConn. Or ask Texas Tech.
Is this the best Final Four field in history? It’s certainly in the conversation.
An upset-free NCAA tournament will culminate with a monster Final Four.
Next Saturday can’t arrive soon enough.
